Washington / Tehran / Moscow — February 27
New reporting and intelligence disclosures suggest a coordinated geopolitical effort by Russia and China to undermine potential U.S. military action against Iran by compromising operational secrecy, rebuilding Iranian air defenses, and raising the cost of any American strike, even as diplomatic negotiations continue.
According to reporting by The New York Times and Politico, Russian intelligence delivered a fully developed U.S. strike plan to Tehran on February 20, including target matrices, launch platforms, and timing sequences. The disclosure reportedly occurred while diplomatic talks with Iran were still being scheduled, effectively eliminating one of the foundational advantages of modern air warfare: surprise.
Military analysts note that since Operation Desert Storm, surprise has been central to U.S. air campaign doctrine. That advantage, the reporting suggests, was neutralized “with a single transmission.”
Arms Deal Preceded the Leak
The intelligence leak followed a €500 million arms agreement quietly signed in December 2025, according to documents obtained by the Financial Times. Under the deal, Russia agreed to supply Iran with:
500 Verba MANPADS launchers
2,500 9M336 advanced surface-to-air missiles
The transfer represents the most significant upgrade to Iran’s air defense network since the S-300 system and was reportedly intended to rebuild defenses damaged during Operation Midnight Hammer last summer.
The contract was requested by Iran in July 2025, shortly after its air defenses were heavily degraded. The intelligence disclosure arrived months later, as a new strike campaign was reportedly being assembled.
China Expands the Threat Envelope
China has since entered the equation. Reuters confirmed this week that Beijing is nearing the transfer of CM-302 supersonic anti-ship missiles to Iran, capable of traveling at Mach 3 and designed specifically to threaten U.S. Navy Aegis-equipped destroyers.
At the same time, Chinese sources have openly published annotated satellite imagery and surveillance data on U.S. bases, aircraft deployments, carrier movements, and Israeli airfields, with images disseminated via Chinese social media platforms in Mandarin.
Security officials say the effect is cumulative:
Russia provides intelligence and air defense
China provides anti-ship missiles and real-time surveillance
Iran receives the strike plans, the means to contest the airspace, and weapons to threaten naval forces
No formal alliance has been announced, but defense analysts describe the result as a de facto strategic convergence.
Strategic Motives Extend Beyond Iran
Analysts argue that Russia’s actions are not aimed primarily at Israel, despite Moscow’s extensive economic and demographic ties to the country. Russia has approximately 2 million citizens with ties to Israel, representing roughly 15% of the population, and conducts an estimated $3 billion in annual trade.
Instead, the reporting suggests Russia’s objective is to degrade U.S. power projection without directly endangering Israeli territory or diaspora communities. The Verba missile systems supplied to Iran are designed to engage U.S. aircraft, not Israeli ones.
China’s motivation appears similarly strategic. Defense officials note that every Tomahawk missile expended in the Middle East is one less available for a Taiwan contingency, and replenishing precision-guided munitions can take years.
Pentagon officials have privately acknowledged that sustained high-intensity operations could consume 7 to 10 days’ worth of advanced munitions stockpiles, making cost-imposition a central objective for both Moscow and Beijing.
Diplomacy Continues as Damage Mounts
Despite the intelligence compromise, diplomatic engagement remains formally intact. Oman’s foreign minister is scheduled to meet Vice President J.D. Vance on Saturday to convey Tehran’s response following the most intense round of talks in Geneva to date. Technical discussions are expected to shift to Vienna next week.
However, analysts warn that while diplomacy may continue, the strategic damage is already done.
“Russia has told Iran what is coming. China has armed the maritime threat. The strike plan is compromised,” the post concludes. “The question is no longer whether America can strike Iran. It is whether a campaign the adversary has already read is still worth launching.”
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