As Iran braces for the possibility of direct conflict with the United States and Israel, a profound but largely unacknowledged shift has taken place at the heart of the Islamic Republic’s power structure. While President Masoud Pezeshkian remains the country’s nominal executive, real authority has consolidated elsewhere — in the hands of Ali Larijani, a hardened regime insider entrusted by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei with steering the state through what Tehran views as an existential crisis.
As nationwide protests mounted and the threat of U.S. military action intensified earlier this year, Khamenei turned not to Iran’s elected leadership but to Larijani. A former Revolutionary Guards commander, longtime power broker, and veteran of Iran’s security establishment, Larijani was tasked with one mission: preserve the system at any cost.
A President Sidelined
President Pezeshkian, a heart surgeon by training who ran on a message of technocratic competence, has been effectively pushed to the margins. In one revealing episode described by senior officials, Iran’s foreign minister sought permission to contact a U.S. envoy in an effort to avoid escalation. Pezeshkian reportedly admitted he did not know whether such contact was even permitted — and directed the minister to seek authorization from Larijani instead.
The moment exposed Iran’s true power hierarchy: the elected president defers to an unelected war manager.
Pezeshkian himself has publicly downplayed his political role, at one point remarking, “I’m a doctor, not a politician.” In Iran’s current environment, analysts say, that admission amounted to a political death sentence.
Rule by Crisis Committee
Larijani now operates at the center of a tightened inner circle loyal directly to Khamenei. His responsibilities have expanded dramatically — overseeing internal repression, coordinating with Russia and regional intermediaries such as Qatar and Oman, managing nuclear negotiations with Washington, and preparing the country for possible war.
Iranian officials and former diplomats describe a system increasingly run by what amounts to a wartime crisis committee. Larijani heads the Supreme National Security Council, while a newly created National Defense Council manages military operations. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has been designated de facto wartime commander of the armed forces, with other senior figures overseeing intelligence and internal security.
These changes reflect lessons learned from Israel’s surprise strikes in the previous conflict, which reportedly disrupted Iran’s command chain. In response, authority has been centralized, succession planning hardened, and continuity ensured even in the event of leadership decapitation.
Preparing for Assassination — and Collapse
Khamenei, now in his mid-80s, appears to be planning not only for war, but for his own death. Officials say he has ordered multiple layers of succession for key military and government posts and delegated decision-making authority to trusted confidants in case communications fail — or if he is killed.
While several potential successors have reportedly been identified, none have been publicly named. Larijani is unlikely to become supreme leader due to the requirement that the position be held by a senior Shiite cleric. Still, he remains deeply embedded in the regime’s core command structure and is widely viewed as the leading emergency ruler should top leadership be eliminated.
Iranian planners have even debated who would govern if multiple senior leaders were killed. Larijani reportedly tops that list, followed by Ghalibaf and former president Hassan Rouhani — each burdened by corruption allegations, ties to repression, and responsibility for past human rights abuses that could further inflame public anger.
A Nation on War Footing
Signs of preparation are visible across Iran. Armed forces are on maximum alert. Missile launchers have been positioned near Iraq and along the Persian Gulf. Naval exercises, missile tests, airspace closures, and even planning for a temporary shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz signal readiness for escalation that could shake global energy markets.
Internally, security forces, intelligence services, and Basij militias are expected to flood major cities in the event of conflict — establishing checkpoints, suppressing unrest, and hunting suspected foreign operatives. The regime is preparing simultaneously for external war and internal rebellion.
The Shadow Ruler
Publicly, Larijani has struck a defiant tone, declaring Iran “more powerful than before,” insisting the country is not seeking war — but warning that it will respond if forced.
Behind the scenes, analysts say his ascent marks a decisive transition. Iran is no longer operating as a conventional political system, but as a survival regime — one run not by diplomats or reformers, but by hardline operators built for crisis management.
If war comes, the man directing Iran’s response may not be the president seen on television. It will be the shadow ruler working behind him.
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